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Destin Florida & 30A Corridor Condo Market YTD Statistics

Southern Half of Okaloosa & Walton Counties

May 2012 - Destin & Miramar Beach Condo Inventory is at a multi-year low and sales at a 7 Yr high. Condo sales 1st Qtr 2012 indicate a continued sales uptrend in Buyer demand and a shrinking inventory. Buyers behavior verifies a market bottom is very near or has arrived and are taking advantage of record low pricing and historial low mortgage interest rates.

Condo Sales: The above chart depicts an annualized Inventory and Sales number from 2003 – 2012. Condo sales YTD have risen 35%+/- compared with the same period last year. If this trend continues we are on track to approach 2005 year-end Unit sales. If inventories don’t increase, we can expect prices to begin increasing as Buyers chase fewer offered Units. 

Condo Inventory: Condo inventory has been falling since 2005 with a high of 3785 units. The total number of Units as of May 1st was 480. The Condo inventory YTD hasn’t been this low since late 2004.

Market effects of low Condo inventory: Inventories have fallen well below their 10-year median.  Lower inventories are limiting the LP to SP % Discount and are beginning to nudge prices upward. Bargain basement distressed inventory is noticeably thinning and a rise in price seems inevitable especially in the Condo and 2nd SFR markets where Buyer pressure is strongest.

Condo Bank Owned – What Buyers Should Expect:

We are know witnessing multiple offers on Bank Owned Units and requests from Lenders for the ‘Highest & Best” Offer to all submitted Offers. A quick check of Bank Owned sales YTD indicates a LP to SP % of 96%+/-. While deep discounts can happen, they are often associated with Condo & SFR Properties that are either over-priced initially, or those which are truly distressed such as partially completed, damaged, stripped, have environmental issues, high Monthly HOA Fees or unusual Special Assessments, FEMA NFIP issues, Subdivision limited mortgage financing or are severely neglected and in need of meaningful restoration.

Many Bank Owned Condos are selling at or above list price. With the Bank Owned inventory shrinking and quick 72+/- DOM sales cycles, it demands Buyers know the Market and be ready to move decisively when a Bank Owned or Pre-Approved Short Sale comes on the Market. The days of deep discounts are over and be prepared to pay list price or higher to buy a premium Unit.

What is driving Condo & SFR beach property recovery? Buyer polls show that Condo sales are being driven by the combination of (3) economic factors: 1) deflated condo prices; 2) Record low interest rates; and 3) increase in overall gross rental revenue as evidenced by the uptick in Okaloosa and Walton county bed tax collections

Caveat: With the combined LP/SP% ratios contracting for Bank Owned and Short Sale Condo Properites to 96.05%, one could state with a high confidence factor, that the Condo & SFR Market mean valuations have bottomed. This can further be supported by the fact that most all Bank Owned and many Short Sale Condo & SFR Properties are receiving multi-offers from value conscious Buyers realizing they are witnessing a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ to buy Gulf area resort property/2nd homes at a 40%-60% discount off the peak high.

Listening To The Market: Picking a bottom in any market is difficult at best, but the market appears to be telling us it is near if not already there. As Jesse Livermore, one of the world’s greatest stock traders, once said, “You buy when there is blood in the streets”.

Real Estate Axiom: Bank Owned and Short Sale properties only sell once. When they are gone, they’re gone. Don’t miss this opportunity to buy a piece of paradise at “Fire Sale” prices while you still have a good choice of inventory.

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